Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide 3rd edition

The majority of this guide covers risk relating to management decisions, in addition to modeling techniques in a section aimed at risk analysts. Vose uses Excel almost exclusively as well as examples from his software add-in. This edition has been updated and expanded with five new chapters on how to plan and assess the quality of a risk analysis, the summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modeling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment, and microbial risk assessment. It has more focus on business and applications in different settings. Vose works at a risk analysis consulting firm. Annotation ©2008 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.